Macroeconomic performance and outlook
Real GDP growth for 2019 was 1.5%, half that in 2018, explained by cyclone Kenneth in April 2019, which caused destruction (power plants, roads, and produc- tion capacity) equivalent to 12.5% of GDP. Growth has been driven primarily by electricity and transport on the supply side, and by public investment on the demand side. For 2019, inflation is estimated at 2%, the fiscal deficit at 2.6% of GDP (financed by statutory advances from the central bank to the treasury, loans, and exter- nal aid), the current account deficit at 8.9% of GDP, and external debt at 32.4%, up slightly from 2017 (29.3%). The IMF’s latest debt sustainability analysis rated the risk of debt distress as moderate.
Poverty (at the national poverty line) affects 44.1% of the population, and the income distribution is unequal, with a Gini coefficient of 0.39. Unemployment is esti- mated at 3.7% in 2018, and youth unemployment at 8.5%.
Tailwinds and headwinds
The post-cyclone cleanup and the support from devel- opment partners (for macroeconomic stabilization and sectors affected by the cyclone) are expected to lift GDP growth to 3% in 2020 and 3.2% in 2021. The financing already obtained will be used to relaunch socioeconomic, production, and private sector support infrastructure. Inflation is projected at 1.9% for 2020 and 2.1% for 2021, the fiscal deficit at 2.8% of GDP then
3.1%, and the current account deficit at 8.8% of GDP then 8.7%.
Between 2016 and 2018, the real electricity access rate rose from 75.4% to 77.8% and available capacity increased by 32% (from 19MW to 25MW). The govern- ment aims to stabilize the energy sector by implement- ing decrees to separate water and electricity, create a new electricity company, and review the electricity tariff structure.
Structural challenges include vulnerability to climate change, with increasingly frequent and violent cyclones. Labor and capital productivity is low. The diversification of national production and exports (ylang ylang, vanilla, and clove) is weak, market size is small with fewer than 1 million inhabitants, and given the country’s isolation, costs are high for international transport. Structural transformation is very slow, with industry’s share of the economy stable at 9.6% of GDP. Barriers to the private sector are high, and there was no policy for its develop- ment until 2017.
The income distribution is highly unequal, and unemployment is high, especially among the young (8.5%). Human and institutional capabilities are weak —almost half the active population lacks education qualifications.
National strategies have not been fully implemented, as with the industrialization strategy (2017), the employ- ment policy (2013), the agricultural policy and the fight against food insecurity (2014), the education sector transition policy (2017), and the national strategy for the blue economy (2013).
Health sector preparedness
The Global Health Security Index ranked Comoros 160 among 195 countries worldwide and 39 in Africa. With a score of 27.2 of 100 (below the world average of 40.2 of 100), it is among the least prepared countries to face an epidemic or pandemic.
The government’s health policy has focused on imple- menting and strengthening the prevention, response, and care measures through border surveillance, raising public awareness of the pandemic, compliance with preventive measures, and care for infected persons. New polymerase chain reaction (PCR) machines have been ordered, as well as sufficient masks and tests.
The government has also committed to reducing taxes and customs duties by 30% and to simplifying customs clearance procedures for food products, essential medi- cines, and hygiene products and materials.
A package of CFAF 100 million (about $218,000) per month has been granted to companies affected by the air- port closures (notably the National Agency for Civil Aviation and Meteorology, Comoros airports, and ComAir Assis- tance) to ensure that employee salaries are sustained. The deadline for submitting tax returns has been extended to 31 May from the initial date of 31 March.
The central bank has authorized the rescheduling of debts and the freezing of premiums for loans affected by the COVID–19 crisis. To restore liquidity to the commercial banking sector, the reserve requirement was lowered from 15% to 10% for six months starting 1 April.
Documents & Resources
Documents - Ministry of Finance
- Mise en oeuvre du programme d'Action- Stratégie croissance des Comores (435 kB)
- National Clearance and settlement system of Comoros (50 kB)
Documents - Central Bank
- Loi bancaire des Comores (122 kB)