Macroeconomic performance and outlook
Real GDP is estimated to have fallen to 3.1% in 2019 due to subdued final demand of investment and exports. On the supply side, mining and agriculture remained the dominant contributors to real GDP growth. On the demand side, government investment in infrastructure —notably in energy, roads, and irrigation—underpins growth. The economy has experienced a persistent fall in consumer prices for three consecutive years (2017– 19), down 13.3% in 2017, 14.4% in 2018, and an esti- mated 27.6% in 2019. Deflation is structurally driven by the low prices of imported consumer goods supported by contraband trade and an overvalued exchange rate (by 14.9% in real effective terms).
The fiscal balance is estimated at 0.6% of GDP in 2019, down from 10.9% in 2018, and domestic credit is estimated to grow at 1.4%. With total debt at 248.9% of GDP in 2019, Eritrea is already at high risk of debt distress, reducing its debt carrying capacity. While the bulk of this debt is domestic, external debt is estimated at 64.4% of GDP.
The current account surplus fell to 11.3% of GDP in 2019, largely reflecting a drop in net exports. In 2019, gross international reserves are estimated to cover 3.1 months of imports, up from 2.7 months in 2018, but are less than adequate to weather external shocks.
Tailwinds and headwinds
The economic outlook is positive, with real GDP growth projected to increase to 3.9% in 2020 and 4.0% in 2021. Per capita income is expected to grow from 1.8% in 2019 to 2.6% in 2021. Underpinning this outlook are the removal of UN sanctions, the dividends from continuing the September 2019 peace and friendship agreement with Ethiopia, and the cessation of hostilities with Dji- bouti. This has paved the way for the re-engagement of various international organizations that will support various sectors of the economy. There is confidence in the country’s macroeconomic outlook, particularly the possibility for embarking on financial reforms.
The main opportunities are in mining, tourism, and agriculture. Increased investment in copper, zinc, and Colluli potash is expected to drive growth in mining. The Africa Finance Corporation and the Africa Exim Bank will jointly finance potash production. And investors from Italy and the Eritrean diaspora have expressed interest in developing the islands and coastlines, which would boost tourism. Agriculture is attracting develop- ment partner investments in irrigation, microcredit, and alternative livelihoods. The Horn of Africa initiative is focusing on infrastructure and human development as drivers of growth.
Debt distress could culminate in a drop in the sov- ereign rating and a rise in interest spreads, constrain- ing growth. Given the dominance of state enterprises and their dependence on state financing, the spillover effects of sovereign debt on these enterprises could reduce output.
Dependence on exports of gold and zinc and agri- cultural raw materials makes the country vulnerable to external shocks. The demand for Eritrea’s commodity exports could be reduced by sluggish growth in the global economy, particularly the key trading partners in Europe and the Far East.
Vulnerability to climate shocks and delayed agricul- tural transformation have reduced agricultural produc- tivity. Given the size and importance of this sector for food security and employment, lower productivity could constrain the potential contribution of agriculture (now 20% of GDP).
Constraints on starting a business, dealing with con- struction permits, registering property, obtaining elec- tricity, obtaining credit, and protecting minority investors increase financing costs and reduce returns on invest- ment. Skill mismatches, poor roads, weak domestic finance, and inadequate information and communica- tions technology also reduce the returns to investment and projected growth. The government is addressing skill mismatch by building capacity and developing appropriate curricula for technical and vocational edu- cation and training. Eritrea remains low on the Human Development Index, ranked 182 of 189 countries.
Health sector preparedness
Eritrea beefed up its preparedness and response actions to fight the pandemic in line with the WHO strategic pre- paredness and response plan. The 2019 Global Health Security Index ranked Eritrea 178 among 195 countries, with a score of 22.4 of 100, below the global average of 40.2.
A national COVID–19 pandemic response plan is yet to be announced. However, the authorities should continue to mobilize citizens within the country and the diaspora to support the National Fund for COVID–19 pandemic. The swift responses from volunteers have allowed the government to address the immediate health needs with- out neglecting the most vulnerable. The authorities have also continued to follow WHO’s preparedness guidelines and response actions. Increasing access to credit for the micro, small, and medium enterprises will prevent busi- ness closures and support a quick economic recovery once COVID–19 is contained. In this context, recapitalizing and enhancing the capacity of the Eritrean Investment and Development Bank will be critical.
Guide to Buying Bonds
Procedures for market participation
Openness to international investors
Shortly after independence, the government launched two privatization programs with the hope to attract foreign investors. However, the initiatives did not prove successful and the government remains a major player in the country’s economic activities.
Restrictions on foreign exchange and profit repatriation
The government exercises strict control over foreign exchange flows.
List of primary dealers