Debt vs GDP / Bonds vs bills
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All Data - Somalia
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Somalia’s economy remains fragile, as recovery continues to be hampered by the challenging security environment, poor infrastructure and limited financial resources. The country’s dependence on agriculture and livestock in particular (which is a vital export commodity) reflects its narrow economic base and vulnerability to adverse external and environmental shocks. This also constrains the Federal Government of Somalia’s (FGS) capacity to generate sufficient revenue to support its economic reconstruction and development agenda and stabilise the macroeconomic environment.
The IMF estimated real GDP to be 2.7% in 2015, driven by growth in agriculture, financial services, construction and telecommunications. Assuming gradual progress on the security front and absence of droughts, medium-term annual real GDP growth is projected at about 5%. Nevertheless, growth will remain inadequate to address the widespread poverty in the country. Creating jobs for the youth, providing social services such as education and health, and building sustainable livelihoods continue to be Somalia’s key development challenges.
In a bid to attract investment, the FGS is taking steps in a few strategic areas. These include: i) trying to ease the flow of imports and exports; ii) creating more financial stability and legitimacy in the country; iii) facilitating the continued flow of remittances; and iv) rebuilding and developing basic infrastructure.
In June 2015, the Ministry of Planning and International Co-operation initiated the process of developing a National Development Plan (NDP) that will be the post-2016 planning framework for Somalia. The NDP framework will define the country’s development priorities over a five-year period. The plan will also outline internal and external financing needs and major sources of funding and will guide the allocation of resources and prioritisation of government actions and international development support. The NPD will also serve as the Interim Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (IPRSP), until a full-fledged official one is developed, and will include a vision and direction for Somalia’s socio-economic development and poverty reduction.
The FGS has also set up a unit within the Prime Minister’s office to develop a framework for public sector capacity building. This process is ongoing and will slowly start to enhance the Federal government capabilities and responsiveness. However, the current tight fiscal space, with extremely limited revenue raising capacity, combined with the challenging security situation, makes it difficult to attract skilled professionals into the public sector, thereby limiting the government’s capacity to deliver services.
Source : African Economic Outlook 2016
Monetary policy & Public debt
Although the functions of the Central Bank of Somalia were restored in April 2011, the institution has not resumed its monetary policy activities. The Central Bank is awaiting the institution of the Board and of the different committees.
Up until 2012, the government had practiced imprudent fiscal policies: large fiscal deficits were financed through money printing and inflation rates skyrocketed. Between 1993 and 1995, inflation averaged 331.2% and in 2010, it was estimated at 300%. This record of high inflation rates, in addition of the instability of the Somalia shilling are amongst the many challenges faced by the Central Bank of Somalia.