Debt vs GDP / Bonds vs bills
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All Data - Sudan
|GDP (billions US$)||69.96||68.13||66.75||86.11||-||-|
|Total Outstanding Amount (Billion US$)||-||-||-||-||-||-|
|Outstanding Amount/GDP (%)||0.00%||0.00%||0.00%||0.00%||-||-|
Inflation declined to 16.9% in 2015, while real GDP growth remained buoyant at 5.3%, supported by agriculture, minerals, services, oil-transit fees and foreign direct investment (FDI). Growth is expected to strengthen to 6.2% in 2016 and 6% in 2017, despite the fall in oil prices, reduced gold purchases by the Central Bank and the unstable security situation. The forecast is based on the assumption of strong agricultural revival, a gradual recovery of global oil prices, political stability in South Sudan, sustained inflows of FDI and a positive outcome from the national dialogue to end the civil war and conflicts.
Fiscal and monetary consolidation, together with low global food prices and a significant increase in FDI by 37%, have boosted economic growth and helped to reduce inflation from 36.9% in 2014 to 16.9%. Nonetheless, the challenges of diversification and social development, including high unemployment, poverty and unequal distribution of wealth, in the context of the civil war still remain. Spending on social development in 2015 is unlikely to be higher than it was in 2014 (0.3% of GDP) and is not expected to rise in 2016. Challenges of the external-debt problem and normalisation of relations with creditors also continue to persist. The government has yet to agree on a new IMF-Staff Monitored Programme (SMP) as a prelude for reaching a decision on the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPCs) Initiative. In 2015, Sudan was removed from the “black list” of the Financial Action Task Force, an international financial-fraud monitoring body located at the OECD. However, the continued difficulties of processing international banking transactions may fuel informal transfers, contribute to exchange-rate distortion, and reduce fiscal revenues.
Sudan‘s cities contributed an estimated 60% of GDP in 2014, with a skills base 62% higher than in rural areas. In urban areas, job creation is above average and the poverty rate is less than half of the national average. By 2030, the urban population will represent 48.6% of the total, reflecting a continuing contraction in the share of the rural population. However, since 1990 urban growth has been propelled by rural-urban migration, internally displaced people (IDPs) due to the civil war and conflict, climate-change impacts on the environment, and population growth. This has led to serious strains on urban services and disrupted the urban-rural market links that are of key importance for agriculture-based structural transformation. Policies adopted to upgrade slums have resulted in low-density, auto-dependent sprawl, further adding to urban services delivery inefficiencies. The adoption of an urban-development strategy aiming to improve infrastructure, land governance, and involve the private sector more in urban development is, therefore, inevitable if Sudan is to harness the potential benefits of its rapidly growing urban sector.
Source : African Economic Outlook 2016
Monetary policy & Public debt
Since the independence of South Sudan in July 2011, the Central Bank of Sudan (CBoS) had to revise its monetary policies. The new policies were formulated in line with the economic stability program of the government of Sudan.
The CBoS had adopted a 5-year strategic plan for the years 2007-11. For 2010, the monetary and fiscal policies were chosen such as to help achieve a GDP growth of 6% and an inflation rate lower than 9%.
The Central Bank uses the growth in money supply as the operational target. Interest rates are governed by Islamic modes of financing. The other policy instruments the Central Bank uses are cash reserve ratios (13% for all deposits) and minimum liquidity ratios (10%). Liquid assets that commercial banks cannot hold include Central Bank Ijarah Certificates (Shihab), Government Musharaka Certificates (Shahama) along with government and non-government Sukuk. Sukuk are used in the liquidity management framework.
The country suffered from recurrent high inflation rates (20% in 2010 and 36% in 2011). Fiscal deficit was only 4.4% GDP. In May 2003, the Central Bank adopted a managed floating foreign exchange regime. In 2007, the currency was redenominated by a factor of 1 Sudanese pound equals to 100 Sudanese dinars (old currency).
Sudanese external debt was valued at USD 39.7 billion (South and North Sudan combined); of this amount, 84% comprised of arrears. In 2010, public domestic debt was estimated at 7.8% and reflected an increase in public sector borrowing requirements. The debt level of South Sudan is currently unsustainable.
Regarding its foreign exchange policy, the CBoS strives to maintain a stable exchange rate. After South Sudan became independent in 2010, the CBoS had to redesign its foreign exchange policy to be in line with the economic stability program. As a result, the Central Bank decided to liberalize the foreign exchange segment of the entire banking sector. The new policy framework includes sections on gold trading and enhancements FDI policies.
The Central Bank of Sudan (CBoS) is the bank of the government, its advisor and agent.
Banks, local and foreign investors, companies, individuals and financial institutions invest in the short-term securities (Musharaka certificates).
The Sudan Financial Services (SFS) helps the Central Bank in regulating liquidity and in forming special funds in the financial services sector. It also promotes dealing through the capital markets. SFS organizes the auctions relevant to the selling and buying of the Government Musharaka Certificates (GMCs), Government Investment Certificates (GICs) and the Central Bank of Sudan Ijarah Certificates (Shihab).
Instruments used for open market operations
Central Bank Ijara Certificates (Central Bank Ijara Certificates), known as certificates of Shihab. These are papers, Islamic in nature, issued by the Central Bank and based on a period of maturity of 10 years and a nominal value of 1000 pounds and distributed returns are fixed monthly.
Sukuk are government instruments issued for purposes of managing liquidity, bridging the fiscal gap and for capital market development.
Government Musharaka Certificates (Government Musharaka Certificates) are paper Islamic financing instruments issued by the Ministry of Finance.
Instruments of government investment (Government Investment Certificates), known as Besrah are Islamic in nature and issued by the Ministry of Finance. Periods of maturity range from two to six years non-renewable and the nominal value of the instrument per the sum of 100 pounds is distributed in profits quarterly or bi-annually.
Primary and secondary market
Primary Market and Auction Process
The Central Bank uses several ways to implement open market operations:
- Buying and selling through direct negotiations.
- Buying and selling through fixed price auctions.
- Sale and purchase through open auctions.
The Sudan Financial Services Company is in charge of organizing the auctions.
OTC vs. Exchange listed
Sukuk are traded on the Karthoum Stock Exchange.
Trading is conducted for 1 hour per day Sunday through Thursday.
Clearing, settlement and custody
There is currently no information on the clearing and settlement system in Sudan.
Guide to Buying Bonds
Capital gains are taxed as ordinary income.
Settlement cycle is T+8 days, except for Government Musharaka Certificates (T+1).
Openness to international investors
The government encourages foreign investment. There are no legal distinctions made between foreign and domestic companies. Officially, foreign and domestic investments are treated equally under the law. Foreign investment is restricted in certain sectors of the economy and requires government approval.
Bureaucracy is cumbersome and prone to corruption. Political instability and inadequate infrastructure also discourage investment. All residents may hold foreign exchange accounts. Non-residents may hold foreign exchange accounts with government approval. Some restrictions and controls apply to all transactions involving capital market securities, money market instruments, credit operations, and outward direct investment.
The purchase of government securities is open to foreign investors.
In May 2003, the Central Bank adopted a managed floating foreign exchange regime. In 2007, the currency was redenominated by a factor of one new Sudanese pound equal to 100 old Sudanese dinars.
Foreign Exchange restrictions and profit repatriation
Profits can be remitted but proper documentation is required before funds can be transferred out of the country.