Libya

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Debt vs GDP / Bonds vs bills

All Data - Libya

Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
GDP (billions US$) 34.70 81.91 73.37 40.97 - -
Total Outstanding Amount (Billion US$) - - - - - -
Bonds - - - - - -
Bills - - - - - -
Outstanding Amount/GDP (%) 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% - -

News

Country Summary

Following rapid economic recovery in 2012, based on the resumption of hydrocarbon production and exports after Libya’s 2011 civil war, the economy faced major challenges in 2013. During the second half of the year, mounting protests and shut downs at major oilfields and export terminals resulted in oil production’s declining to well below its long-term average of 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd). Production levels reached as low as 200 000-300 000 bpd in October 2013. With income from hydrocarbon sales constituting over 95% of government revenues, this has resulted in substantial budgetary pressure. According to the Libyan Ministry of Economy, the oil blockades cost the Libyan economy over USD 10 billion in 2013. As a result, GDP declined sharply in 2013 but is expected to rebound during 2014/15, on condition that the security situation and, in particular, the incidents at the oil terminals do not worsen compared to 2013.

Fiscal sustainability could be an important challenge in 2014 if the disruptions to oil production continue, especially in light of the government’s commitment to increasing the salaries of public-sector workers by 20% from early 2014. The government’s fiscal stability, which has been threatened as a result of these trends, is not only essential for an effective and rapid economic transition, but also for its ability to exert effective political control across the country and to ensure a smooth political transition.

The collapse of Gadhafi’s regime in Libya has opened up space for new regional tensions over greater economic power and political representation, with hydrocarbon resources often used as a bargaining chip. There have been severe tensions surrounding the possible relocation of the headquarters of the National Oil Corporation (NOC) from Tripoli to Benghazi. In recent months a spate of protests by staff and militias at key oilfields and export terminals across the country has resulted in drastic declines in oil production and exports. Some of the militia groups operating under the umbrella of various government ministries have resorted to force to ensure their agendas are followed and their interests are protected, resulting in a number of security incidents often concentrated in the east of the country and targeting high-level state officials, civilians and international/diplomatic entities.

The banking sector saw some liberalisation, including the introduction of foreign banks. However, the Libyan Central Bank owns four of the major banks that dominate the banking sector with 90% of Libya's banking sector assets:

·  Jamahiriya Bank, which merged with Umma Bank in 2008

·  Wahda Bank

·  Sahara Bank

·  The National Commercial Bank

Although the financial sector reforms were meant to improve financial services, reduce the number of non-performing loans and establish a new payments system, the availability of financing in the local market remains weak. This has impeded any meaningful private sector development.

The Libyan Stock Market was established in 2006.  Twelve companies are listed on the stock exchange, that is, seven banks, three insurance companies, a cement company and the stock exchange itself. The total market capitalization of these stocks is approximately USD 3 billion. At present, there is no bond market in Libya.

Source: Africa Economic Outlook

Monetary policy & Public debt