Macroeconomic performance and outlook
Angola continues to face a challenging macroeconomic environment since the sharp drop in oil prices in 2014. A real GDP contraction of 0.1% is estimated for 2019, indicating that the recession has not yet ended. Even so, there are signs of recovery, and growth of 2.8% is predicted for 2020. The oil price shock of 2014 reduced oil revenues from 35.3% of GDP to 17.5% in 2017, leav- ing an estimated fiscal deficit of 0.1% of GDP in 2019. The value-added tax adopted in 2019 should broaden the tax base and reduce government dependency on oil-related revenues.
The current account surplus is estimated to narrow from 6.9% of GDP in 2018 to 0.5% in 2019, driven by lower export earnings from the oil sector. Pressure on the exchange rate and inflation continues. To reduce the overvaluation of the real exchange rate and ensure that international reserves remain adequate, the government tightened public spending and increased exchange rate flexibility. Reserve money targeting, introduced at the end of 2017, is beginning to stabilize inflation, which dropped from 29.8% in 2017 to an estimated 17.5% in 2019. The fiscal deficits are being financed by external debt and by budget support from multilateral organizations.
Foreign currency shortages generally pose chal- lenges to the tradable (mainly nonoil) sector. Manu- facturing contracted 6.5% in the first quarter of 2019. In contrast, construction, electricity, and agriculture posted positive growth, on balance increasing the nonoil sector’s growth. Unemployment is currently 28%, and real GDP per capita growth is expected to stay negative given the low productivity and fast pop- ulation growth.
Tailwinds and headwinds
Structural reforms will contribute to the economic recovery from 2020 onward. Strategic investments in infrastructure, human capital, and credit markets should diversify Angola’s economy, improve its current account balance, and generate international reserves (about 98% of exports are oil and diamonds).
Government support for export diversification and import substitution is identifying priority sectors to ben- efit from such initiatives as the credit support program announced in May 2019. Enhanced investments in energy will stimulate growth.
Investments in activities and value chains based on comparative advantages in agriculture, fisheries, and petrochemicals need to be aligned with skill upgrading and human capital development.
A 9% reduction in oil production in 2018 is due to the aging of oil production infrastructure and poor per- formance of new oil fields. Low workforce skills are also hindering private investment and economic diversifica- tion, with only 15% of females and 21% of males com- pleting upper secondary school. The business envi- ronment needs to improve private sector-led growth and competitiveness. Structural reforms and macro- economic stabilization must pave way to economic recovery, diversification, and job creation.
Gradual reductions in subsidies for water, petrol, electricity, and public transport are expected in 2020 as part of an effort to rationalize the tax system and gen- erate nonoil revenue. The likelihood of greater private investment and participation in the economy is limited but expected to improve given the privatization program announced in August 2019 (including 195 state-owned enterprises). The Regulatory Authority for Competition was established in February 2019 to increase private competition.
Health sector preparedness
The Global Health Security Index score for Angola is 25.2 (of 100), placing the country at 170 among 195 coun- tries worldwide and at 43 among 54 African countries. The score indicates that the country needs to be better prepared to fight epidemics and pandemics. The health system is weak, with limited capacity to process COVID– 19 tests.
The government reaffirmed its commitment to continue with the fiscal consolidation reforms toward a more diversi- fied private-sector oriented economy while providing coun- tercyclical measures to the population and businesses. Pri- orities are to improve the business environment, including establishing unified corporate tax and developing robust regulations for public-private partnerships. Measures to help businesses during the COVID–19 crisis include easing access to credit, allowing commercial banks to use 2.5% of net assets from the compulsory deposits and a $40 mil- lion credit line to small and medium enterprises from the Angolan Development Bank with 180 days grace period at a subsidized interest rate. A major government initia- tive to protect people is the first phase of the Social Cash Transfer Program (presidential decree on 4 May). And up to 40% of the sovereign wealth fund’s net financial assets of $1.5 billion can complement efforts to mitigate the impact of COVID–19 (presidential decree on 9 April).
According to the 2019 debt strategy document, at the end of 2018, the level of debt relative to GDP reached around 84%, a relatively high figure resulting from the variation in the price of oil and the fluctuations in financing conditions for international markets. Public debt represents 37% of domestic debt and 63% of external debt. In the internal component, the main financing instruments are Treasury securities, namely treasury bills and bonds. As an external component, the main mutual funding instrument. Public debt stock by currency shows higher concentration in dollars with 63%, followed by debt in national currency with 31%. By observing the type of creditors present in the stock, we note the preponderance of commercial banks.
The main objective of the 2019-2021 strategy is to implement actions improve the cost of debt and the risk profile and support its durability. Thus, the strategic actions over the 2019-2021 period would be to improve access to the two markets:
• On the domestic market by issuing benchmark securities with higher volumes and a more assertive, non-indexed frequency, over the longer term, guaranteeing the fungibility of the securities. By ensuring fungibility, the secondary market will be liquid. The increased liquidity in the domestic market will increase the demand for extended longer-term instruments, which will gradually expand local average maturity over the next few years. Similarly, as part of the effort to improve the methodology for placing domestic debt on the primary market, a new methodology for placing securities was adopted, based on a monthly issue for medium and long-term instruments and four monthly short-term issues. It is also planned to implement the preferred operator figure, with a view to creating incentives for secondary market transactions, in a Market Makers system.
• On the international market by issuing Eurobonds, multilateral and bilateral loans with longer maturities under concensionnal conditions.
Guide to Buying Bonds
Procedures for market participation
Government securities (BT - Treasury bills; OT - Treasury bills) are issued by the Banco Nacional de Angola (BNA) on behalf of the government .
The treasury bills: short-term securities with a nominal value of 1,000 Kz each, which can be issued with a maturity of up to 364 days, placed at a discount by auction and redeemable at maturity at their nominal value. The treasury bond are medium and long-term debt instruments with a unit nominal value of 100,000 Kz, issued at a price or quantity auction.
Anyone with funds and an account with a qualified financial institution (member of BODIVA) can buy securities in any commercial bank (preferably when you have a bank account) at the BNA / Asset Markets Department counters at Headquarters and in the Regional Delegations. The securities are bought by direct instruction to your bank; or by direct instruction to the BNA. A national treasury channel has been developped in partnership with BODIVA, the investor portal –PINV
The portal is for the sale of government bonds to physical and legal persons, on line. This portal was created with the aim of facilitating access to Treasury bills, allowing requests from small savers, with the aim of contributing to the diversification of the investment.
Procedures for market participation for residents
Procedures for market participation for non-residents
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Documents & Resources
Documents - Ministry of Finance
- Angola_ExternalDebtStrategyMinFin (1.30 MB)
- Decreto_Presidencial_n._13818.pdf (0.93 MB)
- Guidedinvestissementbondetrésor (589 kB)
- Guidedinvestissementnonresident (602 kB)
- téléchargement.jpg (69 kB)