Macroeconomic performance and outlook
The economy continues to post good numbers. Real GDP growth was 7.4% in 2018 and 2019, and could remain above 7.0% during 2020–21, assuming good rainfall and favorable terms of trade. The service sector remains the main driver of the economy, contribut- ing 3.4 percentage points to growth in 2018. Industry contributed 1.5 percentage points in 2018 thanks to a dynamic agrifood industry and construction and public works sector. The primary sector contributed 0.8 point thanks to agriculture, which benefited from good rainfall and seed distribution by the government. The contribu- tion of extractive industries fell due to the slump in oil production.
In 2019, taxes and duties on exports are estimated to form about 10% of total tax revenues. Imports of petroleum products and food products are still more than 40% of the country’s total imports.
Public debt rose from 49.8% of GDP in 2017 to 52.0% in 2018. The current account deficit deepened to 4.7% in 2018, due to the decline in cashew and rubber prices, but improved to an estimated 3.9% in 2019. The fiscal deficit in 2018, financed mainly by bonds, was at 3.9% of GDP and in 2019 was an estimated 3.1% of GDP.
Tailwinds and headwinds
A demand-side breakdown of growth shows the strong contribution of private investment. For 2019–20, the service sector and private investment will remain the
main sources of growth and should benefit from the dynamism induced by new activities in trade, transpor- tation, and telecommunications.
Cacao farming contributes 15% of GDP and about 38% of exports. Market prices promise to be favor- able for the 2019–20 harvest. In September 2019, Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana (62% of world production) signed an agreement to increase the bean prices paid to farmers. Agricultural processing will benefit from the growth in private investment, which should remain above 10% in 2021.
In July 2019, the Senate passed legislation raising to 30% the quota for women’s representation in elected assemblies. Women currently form only 12% of parlia- mentarians and 2% of mayors.
In the past three years, the government initiated sev- eral reforms in tax administration, but the tax ratio, esti- mated at 15.6% in 2019, is still below the WAEMU mini- mum target of 20%. Tax policy suffers from a wide range of exemptions and high taxation of exports, something that many countries have abandoned because it is not socially distributive. Reforms are, however, under way to improve tax revenue collection.
The CFA franc rate appreciated against the US dollar, adversely affecting exports.
Public finances face risks related to state-owned enterprises and government agencies, whose total debt approached 8% of GDP at the end of 2018.
Orderly elections in the fall of 2020 would help strengthen the favorable political and business climate, as well as sustain the current economic momentum.
Health sector preparedness
Côte d’Ivoire’s health system is not adequately prepared to provide a rapid response to the COVID–19 pandemic, especially in treating the most serious cases, which requires numerous resuscitations. The Côte d’Ivoire Insti- tut Pasteur, the reference laboratory for testing, needs significant support to meet the sharp increase in activ- ity. The 2019 Global Health Security Index ranked Côte d’Ivoire 105 among 195 countries globally and 14 of 54 African countries, with a score of 35.5 (of 100). The low ranking is primarily due to weak performance in the health system, prevention, rapid response, and environmental risk categories.
To limit the spread of COVID–19 and reduce its social and economic impacts, the Côte d’Ivoire government adopted an FCFA 95.9 billion health response plan focusing on epidemiologic and biological monitoring, prevention, and patient care—and an FCFA 1,700.9 billion economic, social, and humanitarian support plan.
This second plan comprises private sector support measures, aimed at businesses, to maintain economic activity by postponing tax payment deadlines for retailers and businesses in the sectors most affected by the health crisis and establishing a support fund for the private, infor- mal, and agriculture sectors. The social measures include such actions as the state’s temporary payment of electric- ity bills (April to July 2020) and water bills (May to August 2020) for the most disadvantaged, and the establishment of a solidarity fund for the most vulnerable groups.
Côte d’Ivoire’s objective is to reach the status of an emerging country by 2020, a goal that will require a debt management strategy that enhances economic performance over the coming years while preserving macroeconomic stability.The government will continue to favor Treasury bond issuances in the UEMOA market with potential additional sources include local-currency denominated eurobonds and Global Depository Notes.
According to the debt management strategy, the domestic debt will average 50% of the total debt over the period 2017-2021. These domestic resources are oriented 85% towards medium and long-term government securities issues, with a predominance of long-term securities (50%) and IMF budget support expected over the period from 2017 to 2019. This strategy meets in addition, mainly to the objectives of developing the internal debt market and limiting the exchange rate risk, under the constraint of the effective realization of projected financing and the challenge of emergence by 2020.
|Domestic Debt Average issues 2017-2021 (billion xof)|
As part of its market development activities, the UMOA Titres Agency has carried out a project to set up issuers' yield curves of the Public Securities Market of the UEMOA zone (MTP) with objective:
- to improve transparency on the MTP
- to contribute to better price formation during the auctions
- to make investors aware of the relationship between primary and secondary markets
- to provide local / international investors with a reference of price for securities issued by the States
The conditions for yield curves constructions have not yet all been observed on the (MTP). It was thus retained:
- in the short term, to develop a first version of yield curves taking into account the specificities of the MTP, while being sufficient evolutionary to support its development;
- in the medium / long term, define the necessary ways and means to Continuous improvement yield curves models following the evolution of the MTP.
Cote d'ivoire government securities yield curve extends to 10 years.
Yield curve calculation models
The yield curve is constructed on the basis of primary market returns. The model used is the Nelson-Siegel Svensson .
Yield curve managed by
Agence UMOA-Titres is responsible for the yield curve.
Agence UMOA-Titres website
Challenges in building an efficient yield curve
Fragmentation of the market
Narrow investor base: comprising homogeneous investors such as banks.
Low liquid secondary market
Guide to Buying Bonds
Procedures for market participation
The primary subscription of Treasury bonds and bonds is reserved for credit institutions, management and intermediation companies (SGI) as well as regional financial institutions with a settlement account in the books of the Central Bank.
Other investors, natural or legal persons, irrespective of the State in which they are established, may also subscribe to Treasury bonds and bonds on the primary and secondary market through credit institutions and SGI. located in the territory of the Union.
Emissions on the primary market of the MTP (Marché des Titres Publics) are made by auction.Each issuance should be advertised at least 7 days before the auction by describing the issuance characteristics. Bidders submit to the Central Bank, sealed in a ballot box reserved for this purpose, a submission form specifying the amounts and the interest rates or the price offered. Submissions may also be made electronically in the conditions defined by the Central Bank.
Later than one hour after the deadline for bids submission, the National Directions of the BCEAO transmit electronically, by fax or any other means of rapid communication accepted by the Central Bank, the main submissions to the principal agency of the BCEAO, which is organizing the auction.
Treasury bills are eligible for refinancing by the Central Bank. Investors and the Central Bank may buy or sell Treasury bonds on the secondary market, awarded by private treaty. In this context, they are required to post the purchase price and sale, which they are willing to transact.
Bond issues can be done by syndication managed by CREPMF.[http://www.crepmf.org/Wwwcrepmf/Reglementation/pdf/Instructions/INSTRUCTION_N36_2009.pdf]
Treasury bonds can be traded on the secondary market. As such, they can be exchanged at the Regional Stock Exchange (BRVM) or outside the BRVM.
On the primary market by auction, the settlement date is T+1 of the issue date.On the secondary market, the payment of purchases of Treasury bonds and bonds by the primary subscribers is made by debiting their settlement account with the Central Bank on the value date of the issue of these securities. settlement date is the first business day following the conclusion of the transaction for domestic transactions and the third business day following the conclusion of the transaction for transactions between two (2) Member States. The Contracting Parties are free to agree on a term greater than these minima for the settlement of transactions, IF the instructions given by both parties are identical, the transaction is directly offset on the agreed value date. In the event of a discrepancy, the Central Bank suspends the transaction and notifies both parties of this decision for correction.
In Cote d’Ivoire, the interest on Treasury Bonds is subject to a 10% debt income tax (IRC). Source [ https://www.tresor.gouv.ci/tres/fr_FR/presentation-des-bons-du-tresor/ ]
Interest on Bonds is subject to a 5% debt income tax (IRC). Source [ https://www.tresor.gouv.ci/tres/fr_FR/obligations-du-tresor-inscrit-en-compte-courant-a-laccd/ ]
|Rating Agency||Current rating||Outlook|
|Moody’s||No rating||No outlook|
|Standard and Poor’s||No rating||No outlook|
The securities market has a system of Specialists in Treasuries. The credit institutions and the SGIs may be approved as SVT under the conditions specified by an Instruction of the Central Bank. As such, they must respect certain commitments that confer special advantages. These commitments and benefits are specified by an instruction from the Central Bank.
List of Primary Dealers
BANK OF AFRICA COTE D'IVOIRE
ABIDJAN PLATEAU, ANGLE AVENUE TERRASSON DE FOUGERES ET RUE GOURGAS
BANQUE REGIONALE DE MARCHES
Immeuble XL, 5ème étage x Avenue du Docteur Crozet et Boulevard de la République - Plateau
BIBE FINANCES AND SECURITIES
Avenue Jean-Paul II, Immeuble SIB, 5ème étage
AVENUE FRANCHET D’ESPEREY
CORIS BANK INTERNATIONAL
Boulevard de la république n° 23 Angle avenue Marchand
ECOBANK COTE D'IVOIRE
IMMEUBLE ALLIANCE AVENUE TERRASSON DE FOUGERES
HUDSON & CIE
8-9, AVENUE LAMBLIN, IMMEUBLE BIAO PLATEAU
SGI ATLANTIQUE FINANCE
IMMEUBLE MACI, 10eETAGE ENTREE ATLANTIQUE ASSURANCE
34 BD REPUBLIQUE, IMMEUBLE ALPHA 2000
UNION TOGOLAISE DE BANQUE
BOULEVARD DU 13 JANVIER NYEKONAKPOE
Openness to international investors
No restrictions prevent foreign investors from trading in the public securities market. They may subscribe to Treasury bonds and bonds on the primary and secondary markets through credit institutions and SGI located within the Union.
There are no significant limits on foreign investment nor are there generally differences in treatment of foreign and national investors, either in terms of the level of foreign ownership or sector of investment.
Restriction on FX and profit repatriation
WAEMU has unified foreign exchange regulations. Under these regulations, there are no restrictions for transfers within the community, and designated commercial banks are able to approve routine foreign exchange transactions inside the community. The transfer abroad of the proceeds of liquidation of foreign direct investments no longer requires prior governments approval.