The economy’s strong growth continues, with real GDP growth an estimated 5.0% in 2018, down slightly from 5.3% in 2017, driven mainly by agriculture (cotton in particular) and services (financial activities and trade). On the demand side, household consumption is the primary driver. The budget deficit was reduced from 2.9% of GDP in 2017 to an estimated 2.5% in 2018. Public debt stood at 35.9% of GDP in 2018, up narrowly from 35.6% in 2017, but external debt declined slightly to 24.1% of GDP. Mali continues to face a moderate risk of debt distress. Inflation slowed to an estimated 1.7% in 2018 thanks to lower prices of foodstuffs and imported oil products. In the external sector, the current account deficit rose slightly from 6.0% in 2017 to an estimated 6.5% in 2018, with import growth (9.3%) outpacing export growth (7.2%).
Tailwinds and headwinds
Real GDP growth is projected to slow in 2019 to 4.7% and remain there in 2020. Inflation is projected to be 1.7% in 2019 and 1.8% in 2020. The budget deficit is projected to shrink gradually from 2.4% of GDP in 2019 to 1.5% in 2020 thanks to consolidation. The current account deficit is projected to remain above 6% through 2020.
Mali has begun to mobilize more revenue and increase the efficiency and quality of public spending, aiming to create the fiscal space required for public investment. It is streamlining tax exemptions, improving the efficiency of the mining tax regime, and strengthening the administration and efficiency of value added tax recovery. The government has also set up a consultation framework to facilitate the implementation of the 2015 peace agreement.
Authorities began to implement a law against illicit enrichment, in particular by requiring senior civil servants to declare their assets. In the energy sector, reforms have sought to strengthen the finances of the public company, Électricité du Mali, to mitigate associated budgetary risks and to free resources for investment and spending in other areas.
Mali has ratified all agreements relating to the free movement of persons and labor within the framework of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the West African Economic and Monetary Union. No measure limits the movement of persons or the right of establishment in self-employment, and ECOWAS nationals need no residence permit and can settle freely in Mali to work or to exercise a liberal profession. However, in practice these rights are hindered by unofficial obstacles at the border, where multiple checkpoints of various kinds create high transaction costs.
The economic outlook could be compromised by several factors, in particular security conditions related to delays in implementing the Peace and Reconciliation Agreement and exogenous shocks such as climate variability, the volatility of gold and cotton prices, and fluctuations in the euro/dollar exchange rate. The recapitalization of some commercial banks has contributed to banking sector stability, but the high ratio of nonperforming loans (16.5% in 2018) could threaten private sector financing.
In the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), Mali is the state with the lowest debt ratio. In 2018, the ratio of domestic debt to GDP is estimated at 12.45% and the ratio of external debt is estimated at 23.25%.
As part of its market development activities, the UMOA Titres Agency has carried out a project to set up issuers' yield curves of the Public Securities Market of the UEMOA zone (MTP) with objective:
- to improve transparency on the MTP
- to contribute to better price formation during the auctions
- to make investors aware of the relationship between primary and secondary markets
- to provide local / international investors with a reference of price for securities issued by the States
The conditions for yield curves constructions have not yet all been observed on the (MTP). It was thus retained:
- in the short term, to develop a first version of yield curves taking into account the specificities of the MTP, while being sufficient evolutionary to support its development;
- in the medium / long term, define the necessary ways and means to Continuous improvement yield curves models following the evolution of the MTP.
Mali government securities yield curve extends to 6 years.
Yield curve calculation models
The yield curve is constructed on the basis of primary market returns. The model used is the Nelson-Siegel Svensson .
Yield curve managed by
Agence UMOA-Titres is responsible for the yield curve.
Agence UMOA-Titres website
Challenges in building an efficient yield curve
Fragmentation of the market
Narrow investor base: comprising homogeneous investors such as banks.
Low liquid secondary market
Guide to Buying Bonds
Procedures for market participation
The primary subscription of Treasury bonds and bonds is reserved for credit institutions, management and intermediation companies (SGI) as well as regional financial institutions with a settlement account in the books of the Central Bank.
Other investors, natural or legal persons, irrespective of the State in which they are established, may also subscribe to Treasury bonds and bonds on the primary and secondary market through credit institutions and SGI. located in the territory of the Union.
Emissions on the primary market of the MTP (Marché des Titres Publics) are made by auction.Each issuance should be advertised at least 7 days before the auction by describing the issuance characteristics. Bidders submit to the Central Bank, sealed in a ballot box reserved for this purpose, a submission form specifying the amounts and the interest rates or the price offered. Submissions may also be made electronically in the conditions defined by the Central Bank.
Later than one hour after the deadline for bids submission, the National Directions of the BCEAO transmit electronically, by fax or any other means of rapid communication accepted by the Central Bank, the main submissions to the principal agency of the BCEAO, which is organizing the auction.
Treasury bills are eligible for refinancing by the Central Bank. Investors and the Central Bank may buy or sell Treasury bonds on the secondary market, awarded by private treaty. In this context, they are required to post the purchase price and sale, which they are willing to transact.
Bond issues can be done by syndication managed by CREPMF.[http://www.crepmf.org/Wwwcrepmf/Reglementation/pdf/Instructions/INSTRUCTION_N36_2009.pdf]
Treasury bonds can be traded on the secondary market. As such, they can be exchanged at the Regional Stock Exchange (BRVM) or outside the BRVM.
On the primary market by auction, the settlement date is T+1 of the issue date.On the secondary market, the payment of purchases of Treasury bonds and bonds by the primary subscribers is made by debiting their settlement account with the Central Bank on the value date of the issue of these securities. settlement date is the first business day following the conclusion of the transaction for domestic transactions and the third business day following the conclusion of the transaction for transactions between two (2) Member States. The Contracting Parties are free to agree on a term greater than these minima for the settlement of transactions, IF the instructions given by both parties are identical, the transaction is directly offset on the agreed value date. In the event of a discrepancy, the Central Bank suspends the transaction and notifies both parties of this decision for correction.
Treasury bills and Treasury bonds incomes are tax-free throughout the territory of the Member States of the WAEMU.But for non-members, the tax rates are different from one country to another. In Mali, the tax rate one securities income is equal to maximum 6%.
|Rating Agency||Current rating||Outlook|
|Fitch||No rating||No outlook|
|Standard and Poor’s||No rating||No outlook|
The securities market has a system of Specialists in Treasuries. The credit institutions and the SGIs may be approved as SVT under the conditions specified by an Instruction of the Central Bank. As such, they must respect certain commitments that confer special advantages. These commitments and benefits are specified by an instruction from the Central Bank.
List of Primary Dealers
BANK OF AFRICA MALI
418, AVENUE DE LA MARNE
BANQUE REGIONALE DE MARCHES
IMMEUBLE LA ROTONDE RUE DR THEZE X ASSANE NDOYE
BOULEVARD DE L’INDEPENDANCE BOLIBANA DRAVELA
CORIS BANK INTERNATIONAL
Boulevard du 22 octobre
PLACE DE LA NATION, QUARTIER DU FLEUVE
BOULEVARD CHEICK ZAYED IMMEUBLE ALI BABA
UNION TOGOLAISE DE BANQUE
BOULEVARD DU 13 JANVIER NYEKONAKPOE
Openness to international investors
No restrictions prevent foreign investors from trading in the public securities market. They may subscribe to Treasury bonds and bonds on the primary and secondary markets through credit institutions and SGI located within the Union.
There are no significant limits on foreign investment nor are there generally differences in treatment of foreign and national investors, either in terms of the level of foreign ownership or sector of investment.
Restriction on FX and profit repatriation
WAEMU has unified foreign exchange regulations. Under these regulations, there are no restrictions for transfers within the community, and designated commercial banks are able to approve routine foreign exchange transactions inside the community. The transfer abroad of the proceeds of liquidation of foreign direct investments no longer requires prior governments approval.