Economic performance remained strong in 2018, with estimated real GDP growth of 7.0%, down slightly from 7.2% in 2017. The primary sector expanded by 7.8% in 2018, driven by agriculture and related activities. The secondary sector recorded 6.9% growth, driven mainly by mining subsectors, agrofood, and construction. The tertiary sector saw 6.7% growth, reflecting strong performance by the retail segment. On the demand side, real GDP growth was driven by 9.5% growth in gross fixed capital formation, 7.7% growth in intermediate consumption, and 6.7% growth in final consumption.
Fiscal management resulted in a deficit of 3.5% of GDP in 2018, up from 3% in 2017, financed mainly by issuing Eurobonds. The total external debt–to-GDP ratio was 62.9% in 2018, down from 64.2% in 2017, but the risk of debt overhang remains low. Inflation was 1.4% in 2018, up slightly from 2017, reflecting a favorable agricultural season and prudent monetary policy. The current account deficit improved from 7.3% of GDP in 2017 to 6.9% in 2018 due to increased agricultural and fisheries exports and lower imports. The terms of trade improved by 4.1%.
The growth momentum recorded since 2015 is expected to continue in 2019 and 2020 due to continued public investment under the Senegal Emergence Plan. Consolidation efforts could bring the fiscal deficit below 3% of GDP after 2020.
These projections are subject to numerous risks, notably rising oil prices. But Senegal may become an oiland gas-producing country by 2021. Other risks stem from the accumulation of internal arrears, which could slow construction activity, and the increase in current spending as a result of social demands characteristic of an election year. As a member of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), Senegal enjoys a stable macroeconomic environment but may be vulnerable to deteriorating competitiveness due to its limited flexibility to adjust to external shocks.
Tailwinds and headwinds
As part of the Senegal Emergence Plan, authorities have implemented reforms from the Business Environment and Competitiveness Reform Program. In the agricultural sector, these reforms have focused on simplifying tax procedures and suspending or exempting some taxes. In the energy sector, various reforms and investments have doubled installed capacity in six years, to 1,250 MW in 2018. The energy mix plan has increased production and lowered the price of electricity by 10%. Operationalizing the economic zones and industrial projects has provided companies with facilities that are up to international standards. But to amplify the effects of these reforms, authorities should strengthen the land tenure regime and align the education system to the future needs of the workplace.
In terms of regional integration, Senegal was one of the first to adopt and implement the WAEMU Common External Tariff, it signed the Continental Free Trade Agreement, and it has implemented port facilitation reforms to make the port of Dakar more attractive and secure. In this regard, the country has ratified and is implementing relevant regional regulations. In the same vein, Senegal has constructed roads and bridges to connect to Gambia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, and Mauritania. In 2017, Senegal’s exports to Economic Community of West African States members accounted for 39.5% of total exports, and exports to WAEMU members accounted for 30.3%. To further increase trade and reduce the transaction costs related to the movement of people and goods, authorities should develop transport infrastructure, in particular the Dakar–Bamako railway.
Senegal is one of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU).The domestic debt rate in 2018 stood at 16.83% of GDP and that of external debt at 63.06 . This difference is due to the fact that Senegal favors non-concessional resources. Financing on commercial terms will only be used for projects with a high level of profitability demonstrated as much as possible Senegal has a prudent debt policy with the application of its Medium-Term Debt strategy 2019-2022 which consists in resorting to debt at lower cost and risk, through the following objectives:
- reduction of risks linked to debt management, in particular foreign exchange, refinancing and interest rate risks;
- lower borrowing costs;
- alleviation of the debt service pressure on the State treasury;
- develop and deepen the domestic market for public securities in Senegal.
These objectives should enable Senegal to minimize the factors of vulnerability in order to safeguard debt sustainability. Particular attention will therefore be paid to the borrowing conditions, namely interest rates and maturities.
As part of its market development activities, the UMOA Titres Agency has carried out a project to set up issuers' yield curves of the Public Securities Market of the UEMOA zone (MTP) with objective:
- to improve transparency on the MTP
- to contribute to better price formation during the auctions
- to make investors aware of the relationship between primary and secondary markets
- to provide local / international investors with a reference of price for securities issued by the States
The conditions for yield curves constructions have not yet all been observed on the (MTP). It was thus retained:
- in the short term, to develop a first version of yield curves taking into account the specificities of the MTP, while being sufficient evolutionary to support its development;
- in the medium / long term, define the necessary ways and means to Continuous improvement yield curves models following the evolution of the MTP.
Senegal government securities yield curve extends to 7years.
Yield curve calculation models
The yield curve is constructed on the basis of primary market returns. The model used is the Nelson-Siegel Svensson .
Yield curve managed by
Agence UMOA-Titres is responsible for the yield curve.
Agence UMOA-Titres website
Challenges in building an efficient yield curve
Fragmentation of the market
Narrow investor base: comprising homogeneous investors such as banks.
Low liquid secondary market
Guide to Buying Bonds
Procedures for market participation
The primary subscription of Treasury bonds and bonds is reserved for credit institutions, management and intermediation companies (SGI) as well as regional financial institutions with a settlement account in the books of the Central Bank.
Other investors, natural or legal persons, irrespective of the State in which they are established, may also subscribe to Treasury bonds and bonds on the primary and secondary market through credit institutions and SGI. located in the territory of the Union.
Emissions on the primary market of the MTP (Marché des Titres Publics) are made by auction.Each issuance should be advertised at least 7 days before the auction by describing the issuance characteristics. Bidders submit to the Central Bank, sealed in a ballot box reserved for this purpose, a submission form specifying the amounts and the interest rates or the price offered. Submissions may also be made electronically in the conditions defined by the Central Bank.
Later than one hour after the deadline for bids submission, the National Directions of the BCEAO transmit electronically, by fax or any other means of rapid communication accepted by the Central Bank, the main submissions to the principal agency of the BCEAO, which is organizing the auction.
Treasury bills are eligible for refinancing by the Central Bank. Investors and the Central Bank may buy or sell Treasury bonds on the secondary market, awarded by private treaty. In this context, they are required to post the purchase price and sale, which they are willing to transact.
Bond issues can be done by syndication managed by CREPMF.[http://www.crepmf.org/Wwwcrepmf/Reglementation/pdf/Instructions/INSTRUCTION_N36_2009.pdf]
Treasury bonds can be traded on the secondary market. As such, they can be exchanged at the Regional Stock Exchange (BRVM) or outside the BRVM.
On the primary market by auction, the settlement date is T+1 of the issue date.On the secondary market, the payment of purchases of Treasury bonds and bonds by the primary subscribers is made by debiting their settlement account with the Central Bank on the value date of the issue of these securities. settlement date is the first business day following the conclusion of the transaction for domestic transactions and the third business day following the conclusion of the transaction for transactions between two (2) Member States. The Contracting Parties are free to agree on a term greater than these minima for the settlement of transactions, IF the instructions given by both parties are identical, the transaction is directly offset on the agreed value date. In the event of a discrepancy, the Central Bank suspends the transaction and notifies both parties of this decision for correction.
Treasury bills and Treasury bonds incomes are tax-free throughout the territory of the Member States of the WAEMU.But for non-members, the tax rates are different from one country to another. In Senegal, the tax rate one securities income is equal to 6%.
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The securities market has a system of Specialists in Treasuries. The credit institutions and the SGIs may be approved as SVT under the conditions specified by an Instruction of the Central Bank. As such, they must respect certain commitments that confer special advantages. These commitments and benefits are specified by an instruction from the Central Bank.
List of Primary Dealers
BANK OF AFRICA SENEGAL
IMMEUBLE ELAN - ROUTE DE NGOR, ZONE 12, QUARTIER DES ALMADIES
BANQUE REGIONALE DE MARCHES
IMMEUBLE LA ROTONDE RUE DR THEZE X ASSANE NDOYE
CBAO GROUPE ATTIJARIWAFA BANK
1, PLACE DE L’INDEPENDANCE
CORIS BANK INTERNATIONAL
26 Avenue Jean JAURES X André Peytavin
KM 5 AVENUE CHEIKH ANTA DIOP
Openness to international investors
No restrictions prevent foreign investors from trading in the public securities market. They may subscribe to Treasury bonds and bonds on the primary and secondary markets through credit institutions and SGI located within the Union.
There are no significant limits on foreign investment nor are there generally differences in treatment of foreign and national investors, either in terms of the level of foreign ownership or sector of investment.
Restriction on FX and profit repatriation
WAEMU has unified foreign exchange regulations. Under these regulations, there are no restrictions for transfers within the community, and designated commercial banks are able to approve routine foreign exchange transactions inside the community. The transfer abroad of the proceeds of liquidation of foreign direct investments no longer requires prior governments approval.