Macroeconomic performance and outlook
Thanks to investments in energy and transportation infrastructure, the investment rate rose from 12% of GDP to 26% over 2012–15 and drove economic growth, estimated at 5.1% in 2019. However, these public expenditures increased the risk of debt unsustainabil- ity since it boosted the debt ratio to more than 80% of GDP in 2016.
In accord with a macroeconomic program (2017–19) to lower debt to less than 70% of GDP in 2020, public capital spending was reduced by more than 40%. Even so, growth recovered to 4.9% in 2018 and 5.1% in 2019 thanks to reform initiatives to broaden fiscal space, improve the business climate, and support the energy, agroindustry, logistics, and digital sectors.
Fiscal discipline and reduced capital spending brought the fiscal deficit down from 8.3% of GDP in 2016 to 2.7% in 2019. The current account deficit improved from 9.9% of GDP in 2016 to 6% in 2019 fol- lowing a more than 20% decline in imports, marking the end of major infrastructure works.
Unemployment was 3.4% in 2015, with underemployment at 24.9%. The poverty rate was 53%, and a Gini index of 0.38 reflecting significant inequalities. Consumer spending by the richest 25% was 2.5 times that by the poorest 25%.
Tailwinds and headwinds
Economic prospects are encouraging, with growth expected to reach 5.3% in 2020 and 5.5% in 2021, on the back of good performance in agriculture and sound monetary management. The debt ratio should be less than 70% of GDP in 2020, with an average budget deficit of 2.1% of GDP. The current account deficit is projected at 5.2% of GDP in 2020 and 5% in 2021.
Public investment contributed to improving basic infrastructure and road and energy connections. Under the auspices of ECOWAS, political dialogue led to the organization of legislative elections in 2018 and local elections in 2019, the first in more than 30 years.
Public finance reforms and the improvement of the business environment helped Togo advance several positions in the 2019 and 2020 Doing Business report. After the country’s successful implementation of its macroeconomic reform program, Standard & Poor’s assigned Togo’s debt a low-risk credit rating.
Togo is ranked 165 of 188 countries on the human development index. The disparity between available training and education programs and employment opportunities puts major pressure on the labor market, especially for higher education graduates.
The economy is undiversified, with a limited indus- trial structure and low manufacturing value added (16% of GDP on average in 2015–18). Credit to the agroin- dustrial sector remains below an average of 0.5% of domestic lending, even though agriculture employs the most people.
Institutional inaction and the sluggish structuring of projects are impeding change, and structural weaknesses reduce the efficiency of public investments.
Key challenges are to increase the fiscal space and bank financing for sectors driving growth. Tax reve- nues of 20% of GDP must rise to fill infrastructure gaps (energy, transport, telecommunications), to finance sectors with high growth potential, like agroindustry, and to allocate more to strengthening human capital. Increas- ing bank financing for sectors driving growth requires a systematic dialogue with public and private players.
Health sector preparedness
Togo’s health system is weak and lacks resilience, with ratios of 5.3 doctors per 10,000 inhabitants, 27.4 nurses per 10,000 inhabitants, and 0.7 beds per 1,000 inhabitants, in addition to insufficient and deficient health infrastructure. This situation is reflected in Togo ranking of 128 of 195 countries and 23 of 54 African countries by the 2019 Global Health Security Index, which assesses the preparedness of national health systems for epidemics and pandemics. Across the six categories measured in 2019, Togo made significant progress in detection and norms, but continues to lag when it comes to the medical system and infrastruc- ture, prevention, the response system, and health-related vulnerabilities. The health sector is underresourced, receiv- ing only 4% of the budget in the past three years.
Since the first recorded COVID–19 case, the government has set up a coordination unit chaired by the President and coordinated by the Prime Minister in cooperation with the United Nations resident coordinator.
The health measures include requisitioning the Lomé Commune regional hospital, used as a new treatment center (120 beds), formalizing the national response plan, declaring a health emergency for three months from 1 April, and mass broadcasting of prevention messages (via SMS, mass media, and social networks). Security mea- sures include an 8 p.m. to 6 a.m. curfew from 2 April, and a special antipandemic force comprising 5,000 men. Social measures include implementing the NOVISSI cash transfer scheme for the most vulnerable and providing free water and electricity for the subsidized tranche sociale category for a period of three months. The main economic measures are disbursing CFAF 2 billion for the initial measures and a national solidarity and economic recovery fund of CFAF 400 billion, with contributions from the government, devel- opment partners, and national and international private sectors. Targeted measures will support inputs and agri- cultural production. In addition to the regional measures, the government is finalizing surveys to determine mea- sures relating to VAT, corporate tax, debt, domestic loan repayments, and job protection. These measures aim to bolster the private sector, including young entrepreneurs.
Togo is one of the most indebted countries in The West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU).Togo's debt ratio is said to be above the community standard ceiling of 70%, with a rate of 73.78% in 2018 compared to 75.6% in 2017. However, the measures taken by the Togolese State since 2017 to reduce the risk of refinancing and the weight of debt service in the budget should make it possible to reduce the debt ratio to 70.4% in 2019. This commitment to the Togolese State complies with the guidelines of the program concluded with the IMF for the 2017-2019 period under the Extended Credit Facility (FEC).[UMOA-Titres]. In fact, the debt management strategy adopted for the 2018-2022 period had set the objective of using concessional and semi-concessional external borrowing and then gradually extending the maturity of domestic debt instruments to absorb the portfolio's exposure. refinancing risk. In 2018, this orientation was well followed with regard to external borrowing. On the other hand, it was not well followed with regard to domestic borrowing, in particular public securities, following the difficulties observed on the internal market due, on the one hand, to the policy of restriction of the BCEAO which led to a limitation refinancing and secondly, investors' preference for short and medium term instruments on the regional financial market (1 year and 3 years). The government signed on December 18, 2019 a first borrowing on the international market, of long maturity to redeem the domestic debt whose maturity is relatively short. This operation would further smooth the repayment profile of the existing debt.
As part of its market development activities, the UMOA Titres Agency has carried out a project to set up issuers' yield curves of the Public Securities Market of the UEMOA zone (MTP) with objective:
- to improve transparency on the MTP
- to contribute to better price formation during the auctions
- to make investors aware of the relationship between primary and secondary markets
- to provide local / international investors with a reference of price for securities issued by the States
The conditions for yield curves constructions have not yet all been observed on the (MTP). It was thus retained:
- in the short term, to develop a first version of yield curves taking into account the specificities of the MTP, while being sufficient evolutionary to support its development;
- in the medium / long term, define the necessary ways and means to Continuous improvement yield curves models following the evolution of the MTP.
Togo government securities yield curve extends to 7years.
Yield curve calculation models
The yield curve is constructed on the basis of primary market returns. The model used is the Nelson-Siegel Svensson .
Yield curve managed by
Agence UMOA-Titres is responsible for the yield curve.
Agence UMOA-Titres website
Challenges in building an efficient yield curve
Fragmentation of the market
Narrow investor base: comprising homogeneous investors such as banks.
Low liquid secondary market
Guide to Buying Bonds
Procedures for market participation
he primary subscription of Treasury bonds and bonds is reserved for credit institutions, management and intermediation companies (SGI) as well as regional financial institutions with a settlement account in the books of the Central Bank.
Other investors, natural or legal persons, irrespective of the State in which they are established, may also subscribe to Treasury bonds and bonds on the primary and secondary market through credit institutions and SGI. located in the territory of the Union.
Emissions on the primary market of the MTP (Marché des Titres Publics) are made by auction.Each issuance should be advertised at least 7 days before the auction by describing the issuance characteristics. Bidders submit to the Central Bank, sealed in a ballot box reserved for this purpose, a submission form specifying the amounts and the interest rates or the price offered. Submissions may also be made electronically in the conditions defined by the Central Bank.
Later than one hour after the deadline for bids submission, the National Directions of the BCEAO transmit electronically, by fax or any other means of rapid communication accepted by the Central Bank, the main submissions to the principal agency of the BCEAO, which is organizing the auction.
Treasury bills are eligible for refinancing by the Central Bank. Investors and the Central Bank may buy or sell Treasury bonds on the secondary market, awarded by private treaty. In this context, they are required to post the purchase price and sale, which they are willing to transact.
Bond issues can be done by syndication managed by CREPMF.[http://www.crepmf.org/Wwwcrepmf/Reglementation/pdf/Instructions/INSTRUCTION_N36_2009.pdf]
Treasury bonds can be traded on the secondary market. As such, they can be exchanged at the Regional Stock Exchange (BRVM) or outside the BRVM.
On the primary market by auction, the settlement date is T+1 of the issue date.On the secondary market, the payment of purchases of Treasury bonds and bonds by the primary subscribers is made by debiting their settlement account with the Central Bank on the value date of the issue of these securities. settlement date is the first business day following the conclusion of the transaction for domestic transactions and the third business day following the conclusion of the transaction for transactions between two (2) Member States. The Contracting Parties are free to agree on a term greater than these minima for the settlement of transactions, IF the instructions given by both parties are identical, the transaction is directly offset on the agreed value date. In the event of a discrepancy, the Central Bank suspends the transaction and notifies both parties of this decision for correction.
Treasury bills and Treasury bonds incomes are tax-free throughout the territory of the Member States of the WAEMU. But for non-members, the tax rates are different from one country to another. In Togo, the tax rate one securities income is equal to 6%.
|Rating Agency||Current rating||Outlook|
|Fitch||No rating||No outlook|
|Standard and Poor’s||B||Stable|
The securities market has a system of Specialists in Treasuries. The credit institutions and the SGIs may be approved as SVT under the conditions specified by an Instruction of the Central Bank. As such, they must respect certain commitments that confer special advantages. These commitments and benefits are specified by an instruction from the Central Bank.
List of Primary Dealers
BANK OF AFRICA TOGO
BOULEVARD DE LA REPUBLIQUE
CORIS BANK INTERNATIONAL
Boulevard du 13 janvier, quartier Béniglato
20, AVENUE SYLVANUS OLYMPIO
PLACE DE L’INDEPENDANCE X AV DES NIMES ET NICOLAS GRUNITZKY
Openness to international investors
No restrictions prevent foreign investors from trading in the public securities market. They may subscribe to Treasury bonds and bonds on the primary and secondary markets through credit institutions and SGI located within the Union.
There are no significant limits on foreign investment nor are there generally differences in treatment of foreign and national investors, either in terms of the level of foreign ownership or sector of investment.
Restriction on FX and profit repatriation
WAEMU has unified foreign exchange regulations. Under these regulations, there are no restrictions for transfers within the community, and designated commercial banks are able to approve routine foreign exchange transactions inside the community. The transfer abroad of the proceeds of liquidation of foreign direct investments no longer requires prior governments approval.