The negative impact of the 2017 political crisis and the severe fiscal adjustment necessitated by the reduction in the debt-to-GDP ratio (from 82% in 2016 to a target of 70% in 2019) held back real GDP growth to an estimated 4.7% in 2018. Primary sector growth was an estimated 5.1%, driven by agriculture (5.1%) and fisheries (6.2%). Secondary sector growth was more muted than in 2017, reflecting lower performance in manufacturing. The political situation is also holding back tertiary sector growth, which was an estimated 4.4% in 2018, down from 7.9% in 2017. On the demand side, economic growth was driven by gross fixed capital formation, contributing 3.8% to growth, and final consumption. Stronger domestic demand resulted in negative net exports. After peaking at 9.6% of GDP in 2016, the fiscal deficit settled at 2.1% in 2017 but climbed to an estimated 6.7% in 2018. Inflation was negative in 2017 and remained low at an estimated 0.4% in 2018.
Real GDP growth is projected to be 5.0% in 2019 and 5.3% in 2020, assuming that the political crisis is resolved and public and private investment recovers. Inflation is projected to remain under control at 1.2% in 2019 and 2.0% in 2020. Along with the anticipated recovery in business activity and capital investment, the fiscal deficit is projected to improve to 1.6% of GDP in 2019. The current account deficit is also projected to continue to improve, from an estimated 7.9% of GDP in 2018 to 6.8% in 2019, thanks to strong exports (phosphates, clinker, and cotton).
Tailwinds and headwinds
The government’s key interventions have focused on the agricultural and energy sectors and on public finance. In agriculture, major interventions include developing agro poles and establishing the Agricultural Incentive and Financing Mechanism. In energy, authorities finalized the strategy for universal access to energy by 2025. In public finance, authorities pursued revenue mobilization by strengthening the revenue authority, removing some fiscal exemptions, and streamlining public procurement. A new National Development Plan for 2018–22 was adopted in August 2018.
Togo actively participates in the ongoing regional integration and trade facilitation efforts within the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), and the Community of Sahel-Saharan States. It has implemented the WAEMU and ECOWAS Common External Tariff since 1 January 2015. Within ECOWAS, Togo scores high on the regional integration index in environmental protection, regional infrastructure, free movement of people, and financial and macroeconomic integration. The port of Lomé is important infrastructure for regional trade, in particular for transit to neighboring landlocked countries but also some coastal countries: 40% of goods imported through the port are transit goods or destined to be re-exported to other countries in the region. Intra-WAEMU trade accounted for 52% of Togo’s exports in 2016.
Togo is one of the most indebted countries in The West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU).Togo's debt ratio is said to be above the community standard ceiling of 70%, with a rate of 73.78% in 2018 compared to 75.6% in 2017. However, the measures taken by the Togolese State since 2017 to reduce the risk of refinancing and the weight of debt service in the budget should make it possible to reduce the debt ratio to 70.4% in 2019. This commitment to the Togolese State complies with the guidelines of the program concluded with the IMF for the 2017-2019 period under the Extended Credit Facility (FEC).[UMOA-Titres]. In fact, the debt management strategy adopted for the 2018-2022 period had set the objective of using concessional and semi-concessional external borrowing and then gradually extending the maturity of domestic debt instruments to absorb the portfolio's exposure. refinancing risk. In 2018, this orientation was well followed with regard to external borrowing. On the other hand, it was not well followed with regard to domestic borrowing, in particular public securities, following the difficulties observed on the internal market due, on the one hand, to the policy of restriction of the BCEAO which led to a limitation refinancing and secondly, investors' preference for short and medium term instruments on the regional financial market (1 year and 3 years). The government signed on December 18, 2019 a first borrowing on the international market, of long maturity to redeem the domestic debt whose maturity is relatively short. This operation would further smooth the repayment profile of the existing debt.
As part of its market development activities, the UMOA Titres Agency has carried out a project to set up issuers' yield curves of the Public Securities Market of the UEMOA zone (MTP) with objective:
- to improve transparency on the MTP
- to contribute to better price formation during the auctions
- to make investors aware of the relationship between primary and secondary markets
- to provide local / international investors with a reference of price for securities issued by the States
The conditions for yield curves constructions have not yet all been observed on the (MTP). It was thus retained:
- in the short term, to develop a first version of yield curves taking into account the specificities of the MTP, while being sufficient evolutionary to support its development;
- in the medium / long term, define the necessary ways and means to Continuous improvement yield curves models following the evolution of the MTP.
Togo government securities yield curve extends to 7years.
Yield curve calculation models
The yield curve is constructed on the basis of primary market returns. The model used is the Nelson-Siegel Svensson .
Yield curve managed by
Agence UMOA-Titres is responsible for the yield curve.
Agence UMOA-Titres website
Challenges in building an efficient yield curve
Fragmentation of the market
Narrow investor base: comprising homogeneous investors such as banks.
Low liquid secondary market
Guide to Buying Bonds
Procedures for market participation
he primary subscription of Treasury bonds and bonds is reserved for credit institutions, management and intermediation companies (SGI) as well as regional financial institutions with a settlement account in the books of the Central Bank.
Other investors, natural or legal persons, irrespective of the State in which they are established, may also subscribe to Treasury bonds and bonds on the primary and secondary market through credit institutions and SGI. located in the territory of the Union.
Emissions on the primary market of the MTP (Marché des Titres Publics) are made by auction.Each issuance should be advertised at least 7 days before the auction by describing the issuance characteristics. Bidders submit to the Central Bank, sealed in a ballot box reserved for this purpose, a submission form specifying the amounts and the interest rates or the price offered. Submissions may also be made electronically in the conditions defined by the Central Bank.
Later than one hour after the deadline for bids submission, the National Directions of the BCEAO transmit electronically, by fax or any other means of rapid communication accepted by the Central Bank, the main submissions to the principal agency of the BCEAO, which is organizing the auction.
Treasury bills are eligible for refinancing by the Central Bank. Investors and the Central Bank may buy or sell Treasury bonds on the secondary market, awarded by private treaty. In this context, they are required to post the purchase price and sale, which they are willing to transact.
Bond issues can be done by syndication managed by CREPMF.[http://www.crepmf.org/Wwwcrepmf/Reglementation/pdf/Instructions/INSTRUCTION_N36_2009.pdf]
Treasury bonds can be traded on the secondary market. As such, they can be exchanged at the Regional Stock Exchange (BRVM) or outside the BRVM.
On the primary market by auction, the settlement date is T+1 of the issue date.On the secondary market, the payment of purchases of Treasury bonds and bonds by the primary subscribers is made by debiting their settlement account with the Central Bank on the value date of the issue of these securities. settlement date is the first business day following the conclusion of the transaction for domestic transactions and the third business day following the conclusion of the transaction for transactions between two (2) Member States. The Contracting Parties are free to agree on a term greater than these minima for the settlement of transactions, IF the instructions given by both parties are identical, the transaction is directly offset on the agreed value date. In the event of a discrepancy, the Central Bank suspends the transaction and notifies both parties of this decision for correction.
Treasury bills and Treasury bonds incomes are tax-free throughout the territory of the Member States of the WAEMU. But for non-members, the tax rates are different from one country to another. In Togo, the tax rate one securities income is equal to 6%.
|Rating Agency||Current rating||Outlook|
|Fitch||No rating||No outlook|
|Standard and Poor’s||B||Stable|
The securities market has a system of Specialists in Treasuries. The credit institutions and the SGIs may be approved as SVT under the conditions specified by an Instruction of the Central Bank. As such, they must respect certain commitments that confer special advantages. These commitments and benefits are specified by an instruction from the Central Bank.
List of Primary Dealers
BANK OF AFRICA TOGO
BOULEVARD DE LA REPUBLIQUE
CORIS BANK INTERNATIONAL
Boulevard du 13 janvier, quartier Béniglato
20, AVENUE SYLVANUS OLYMPIO
PLACE DE L’INDEPENDANCE X AV DES NIMES ET NICOLAS GRUNITZKY
Openness to international investors
No restrictions prevent foreign investors from trading in the public securities market. They may subscribe to Treasury bonds and bonds on the primary and secondary markets through credit institutions and SGI located within the Union.
There are no significant limits on foreign investment nor are there generally differences in treatment of foreign and national investors, either in terms of the level of foreign ownership or sector of investment.
Restriction on FX and profit repatriation
WAEMU has unified foreign exchange regulations. Under these regulations, there are no restrictions for transfers within the community, and designated commercial banks are able to approve routine foreign exchange transactions inside the community. The transfer abroad of the proceeds of liquidation of foreign direct investments no longer requires prior governments approval.